The End of A Romance? A Note on the Quantitative impacts of Brexit
Boulanger, P. and Philippidis, G. (2016) The End of A Romance? A Note on the Quantitative impacts of Brexit, Journal of Agricultural Economics.
This study suggests UK equivalent variation (EV) gains of €8.9 billion on withdrawal
from the EU budget. Factoring in associated trade facilitation costs from
the loss of UK access to the single market, annual UK EV losses could be as high
as €14.0 billion, with the EU-28 facing a corresponding loss of €40.4 billion. Interestingly,
the extrapolated UK gain arising from withdrawal from the ‘CAP’ component
of the EU budget exceeds estimated lower and upper bound trade
facilitation costs exclusively on EU agrofood trade. Accordingly, the UK should
realistically remain as an EU member, although continue to lobby for reductions in
the CAP budget.
This study suggests UK equivalent variation (EV) gains of €8.9 billion on withdrawal
from the EU budget. Factoring in associated trade facilitation costs from
the loss of UK access to the single market, annual UK EV losses could be as high
as €14.0 billion, with the EU-28 facing a corresponding loss of €40.4 billion. Interestingly,
the extrapolated UK gain arising from withdrawal from the ‘CAP’ component
of the EU budget exceeds estimated lower and upper bound trade
facilitation costs exclusively on EU agrofood trade. Accordingly, the UK should
realistically remain as an EU member, although continue to lobby for reductions in
the CAP budget.